About seven years ago in Beijing, I watched a moment that seemed to capture the promise of UK–China trade. Liam Fox, Britain’s then Trade Secretary, struck a modest but telling deal: UK dairy would finally make its way onto Chinese shelves. Hardly the stuff of major headlines, just dry policy detail but it meant real money for farmers back home and was economic diplomacy in action.
What I didn’t realise at the time was that this was the tail end of the so-called “golden era” in UK–China relations. The momentum and ministerial visits that seemed routine then would soon collapse into silence. And now, seven years later, a British Trade Secretary is finally heading back. Peter Kyle, will this week travel to Beijing to relaunch the Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO), frozen since 2018.
The world Kyle enters could not be more different. In Tianjin this week, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit delivered an unmistakable message: the global order is shifting. Xi Jinping, flanked by Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, unveiled a new Global Governance Initiative and floated an SCO development bank, tools of an emerging system designed outside the Western orbit.
At the same time, Donald Trump looms large over the landscape. Back in the White House, his sweeping tariffs are already unsettling allies and rewriting trade rules. His volatility has become a permanent feature of the geopolitical climate, shaking assumptions the UK once treated as stable. In this environment, Britain’s re-entry into Beijing is not just overdue; it is fraught with uncertainty.
Despite years of political headwinds, from Hong Kong tensions to Covid lockdowns, bilateral trade has held firm. In the year to Q1 2025, UK–China trade still totalled nearly £100 billion. That endurance matters: it demonstrates that commercial ties run deeper than politics. But the balance is lopsided. Imports reached £70.8 billion, while exports lagged at just £28.8 billion.
Even during my time in China, British companies were vocalising concerns: they were there for the sheer size and potential of the market, not always because of tangible returns. That equation hasn’t fundamentally changed. China remains a priority market for the UK, but the challenge is to move from potential to actual trade.
Wins like the reopening of the Chinese market to British pork last December, worth an estimated £80 million a year show what can be achieved. But we need more of them, and quickly. Kyle cannot erase the deficit overnight, but JETCO could be the mechanism to chip away at non-tariff barriers and secure targeted, visible results – the kind of outcomes that justify the risk and keep businesses engaged.
Since returning to the UK, I have been slightly shocked that the political discourse around China in Britain has become a war of extremes. On one side, hawkish voices demand disengagement, casting China solely as a security threat. On the other, there are those who just push for closer economic ties, downplaying the more difficult realities of the relationship.
The UK government is trying to chart a middle way. Rachel Reeves travelled to China for the Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) in January, and Sir Keir Starmer’s administration has sent clear top-down signals that Beijing is once again a priority.
While a cross-Whitehall “China Audit” has now been conducted, most businesses, academics, think tanks and civil society groups are still none the wiser about what has actually changed. A multinational with compliance teams and deep pockets may decide to push ahead; a small or medium-sized enterprise, faced with uncertainty, often simply opts out. They do not know what’s encouraged, what’s prohibited, or who to call when the answer isn’t obvious. Until that gap is filled with clear, consistent guidance, Britain risks drifting, caught between rhetoric and reality, while competitors seize the space.
This is the real test. Does the UK have the capabilities to deal with China in a world that is moving so quickly? Take DeepSeek, the Chinese AI firm whose sudden public launch earlier this year erased hundreds of billions in value from Western tech markets. Nvidia alone lost more than half a trillion dollars in market capitalisation in a single day. The Western reaction was not just surprise, it was panic.
The UK’s “China capabilities” are thin. We need a government machine with stronger Mandarin skills, powerful China desks in departments and policymaking that relies more on live intelligence. In the private sector, genuine knowledge still exists, in law firms, consultancies, chambers of commerce, and among multinational executives but it is fragmented and rarely plugged into national strategy.
This is the challenge Peter Kyle will soon grapple with. JETCO can clear tariffs and unblock market access, but unless Britain rebuilds its capabilities, in government, business, and academia our strategy will always be reactive, never proactive. That is the choice now: invest in the skills and systems to understand China, or stumble through the decade blindfolded.
Done superficially, JETCO risks being nothing more than choreography: a handshake in the Great Hall of the People and a string of memorandums of understanding. Done well, it can be the start of a serious strategy.
That means sector-by-sector clarity on what is encouraged, what is managed, and what is off-limits. It means faster, more predictable dispute resolution so technical barriers don’t drag on for years. It means recognising that Britain cannot afford to be caught flat-footed in the world’s second-largest economy. In trade, delay is defeat.
The SCO summit in Tianjin made clear that others are not waiting. They are building, aligning, and financing while the UK argues over semantics. Britain cannot let another seven years pass before taking its seat at the table. JETCO offers a chance to re-establish relevance, to demonstrate coherence, and to show that the UK is serious about converting potential into performance.
The truth is simple: we cannot delay. Britain must decide whether to engage with clarity and confidence, before the choice is taken away.
Steven Lynch MBE is Director of International Trade at the British Chambers of Commerce , and a former Managing Director of the British Chamber of Commerce in China