Today’s slight dip in the inflation rate is welcome but it’s not a game-changer. Underlying price pressures within the economy are clear following the Budget.

Our recent forecast suggests further cuts next year, but with economic clouds gathering, the path to lower borrowing costs is by no means clear.

A slight ticking-up of the CPI to 2.6% shows that inflation remains a threat to the UK economy.

With growth of just 0.1% in the three months to October and an unexpected fall in the monthly GDP, the UK economy was already fragile ahead of the Budget.

The BCC's Quarterly Economic Forecast has revised down growth expectations for 2024, but marginally improved GDP expectations for 2025 and 2026.

While inflation is down considerably from this time last year, the larger than expected uptick in October highlights the continuing price pressures in the economy.

Today’s preliminary GDP data for Q3 at 0.1% suggests economic growth has lost some momentum in the second half of 2024.